Nearly all of the
polls got it wrong. Most of the
“objective” journalists got it wrong. And
as I listen to the reports regarding how Trump is responding to being the
President-elect, they are getting it wrong again. We now have a man who will be President of
the United States on January 20, 2017 that has never held political office,
served in the military and is averse to attention to detail. For only the fourth time in U. S. history we
will have a President who did not garner a plurality of the popular vote. As of December 11, 2016 Clinton has received 65,737,041
(48.08%) and Trump 62,896,704 (46.00%). The difference in the popular vote gives
Trump a deficit of 2,840,337 votes. A
vote total of 46% means that 54%, a clear majority of voters, cast ballots
against Trump. As of January 21st
we will have a President of a democracy that received a minority of the votes in the general election.
So how did we get here? To truly understand how we got here we have
to look back. When Obama was elected
President in 2008 it signaled a dramatic change for the country that was
reflective of our changing demographics.
The U.S is rapidly becoming a more ethnically diverse country. It is now expected that in just 28 years
(2044) persons of European decent will account for less than 50% of the
population of the United States.
Historically, the dominant culture of the U. S. has been that of white
Americans. With the changing
demographics there is increasing pressure for Americans (white and otherwise)
to be more accepting of differences and treat people from different ethnic
backgrounds as full equals as human beings.
There is increasing pressure for all Americans to become more
interculturally competent. For many
Americans (white, African American, Asian, Latino, etc.) the process has
already begun and much progress has been made.
However, for many white Americans, who have had limited exposure to
other ethnicities, it is a very difficult transition. For those Americans, the increasing diversity
is experienced as a threat to the world as they know it. They are absolutely correct. America will never be the same again. The changes that are occurring are
irreversible. Once that threshold is crossed
in 2044 we will never go back.
Much of the white American population that is
experiencing their world coming to an end were traumatized by having an African
American President. Trauma is not an
intellectual experience. Trauma has
nothing to do with political ideology or partisan politics. Trauma is what triggers a flight or fight
response. Trauma produces intense
emotional responses and leaves emotional scars.
The part of our brain that experiences trauma and emotions is not the
same part that engages in rational thought and emotional regulation. The result after President Obama was elected
was a large part of the country attempting to deal with psychological trauma
and intense emotion. Their world was
ending and they did not know what to do about it. The Tea Party attempted to address the trauma
from a political stand point and in 2010 Republicans gained a majority in the
House of Representatives. However, their
political solution was not emotionally satisfying to this group of Americans that
required an intense emotional boost.
Whether this emotional boost was based on rational thought or reality
was inconsequential. It was in this
atmosphere that Donald Trump became the voice of the birther movement. The basis for this historical confrontation
between Trump and President Obama was established. Trump was very vocal in questioning the
legitimacy of President Obama that was primarily targeted on the suggestion that
President Obama was not a natural born American citizen and therefore not eligible
to be president of the U. S.
For those looking for something to grab on to
that would ease their emotional trauma the question of President Obama’s
legitimacy served as a soothing elixir.
Very quickly, an overwhelming majority of Republican voters accepted the
theory and professed doubts about the legitimacy of President Obama. Even as recently as this past summer (2016), an
NBC
News|SurveyMonkey poll conducted in late June and early July of more than
1,700 registered voters, only 27 percent of Republicans agreed with the
statement that Obama was born in the U.S.
We must remember that in 2009 President Obama released a copy of the
short form of his birth certificate.
Then in 2011, in an attempt to put the birther issue to rest, he
released the long form of his birth certificate. However, when dealing with emotional trauma
rational thinking is not engaged.
Provable facts supported by legitimate documents become
meaningless. Thus, Trump rode this wave
of irrationality into becoming the Republican nominee for President and the
President-elect of the U.S.
Most of the
national media and analysts are biased toward rationality and facts (as they
should be). Good journalists are guided
by the pursuit of verifiable factual information. Understanding the subtleties of emotional
trauma is not a priority of most journalists.
Most journalists expect the facts to speak for themselves. Trump’s style
has been the opposite of the pursuit of verifiable facts. For his followers it was not necessary nor
useful. Trump’s followers were not
looking for insightful or meaningful policy.
They were not looking for rational arguments regarding how to improve
America. Emotionally traumatized people
respond to emotional support. Emotionally
traumatized people are attracted to the person that promises to restore what
they believe they lost. It is often
related to safety and security. Trump’s
official entry into the Presidential campaign identified a threat that he will
deal with that comes from the outside.
He framed it in a way that is comforting to those who feel threatened. His slogan “Make America Great Again” implies
a restoration of something that was lost.
During his acceptance speech at the Republican Convention he proclaimed
“I alone can fix it.” His whole campaign
has contained the message that he represents a forgotten or overlooked group
and he will be their champion. His
approach and over the top messaging was perfect for vulnerable emotionally
traumatized persons experiencing a need for a savior. No logic required.
Trump seemed to
intuitively understand who is audience was and how to reach them. He seemed to understand that his appeal had
to be emotional and not rational. He
acknowledged this understanding when he said “I could go down to 5th
Avenue and shoot someone and they would still vote for me.” Most leaders are not comfortable with such
loyalty. Most leaders are not
comfortable with followers whose loyalty is emotionally based with little or no
rational component. Most leaders are not
comfortable with such loyalty because it is ultimately impossible to fully
satisfy the emotional needs of such followers.
Trump, however, is not among most leaders. He is extremely narcissistic and very
self-serving. While he seems to be able
to sense how others are feeling and thinking he has little use for empathy. His ability to understanding others is used
as a means to manipulate others for his own purposes. Throughout most of his life his own purposes
have revolved around enriching himself and engaging in pleasurable experiences.
Now he finds
himself in a situation that he has never encountered in his entire life. At 70 years old, after having lived a life of
excess and pleasurable pursuits, he is the President-elect of the United States
of America. Needless to say he is
totally and completely unprepared for this reality. Just as he enriched himself by lending his
name and reputation to Trump University while the students were being defrauded,
he has once again (on a much larger and more serious scale) established the
basis for committing fraud. He has once again
made an emotional appeal to vulnerable people and provided false hope and made
false promises. Ultimately, Trump
University was recognized as a fraud by its victims. While many journalists, pundits, politicians,
activists, previous victims and others have attempted to sound the alarm, his
followers only grew more attached and protective of their champion. Now we have an unprepared President-elect who
will be unable to deliver on his false promises. That is where things can get harry. Trump is not a young man who would be willing
to cram all the info he needs to do the job of President. He is an elderly man whose habits have served
him well. Having the expectation that
being president would result in a change of his underlying personality is
extremely unrealistic (and very naïve).
So what should we expect?
Trump’s inner
circle is filled with people whose views and ideas that are far out of the
mainstream. When he finds himself
incapable of meeting the challenges of the job his first response will be to
turn to these individuals for advice and counsel. In reality his primary confidants are his
children (Ivanka and her husband, Eric, and Donald, Jr.). They translate the world for him. They have the capability and temperament to
pay attention to the details. He has
relied on them heavily to run his businesses.
He trusts them. Trump being
President without his children close by is like being an English speaker in a
foreign country without a translator. He
will keep them close at all costs.
Trump also has his
Svengali in Steve Bannon. Mr. Bannon has
been the “silent” behind the scenes adviser who has had Trump’s ear throughout
the campaign. Mr. Bannon has aligned
himself with persons who believe in the genetic superiority of the white race. He will tell you that he does not hate non-white
people and he may be speaking a truth (sort of). However, when you believe that you are
superior to others, by definition those others do not matter as much as you
do. When others do not matter it becomes
very easy to dismiss the needs of those others, very easy to subjugate others,
very easy to mistreat others, very easy to scapegoat those others and become
paternalistic about being able to solve their problems. Mr. Bannon’s beliefs fit hand and glove with
Trump’s narcissism. Trump enjoys the
idea that he has a superior intellect, superior negotiating skills and superior
stamina. Remember, “He alone will save
America”.
The final piece of
the puzzle is the Republican majorities in the House and Senate. They have been seduced by the fact that Trump
was able to do something that they believed could not be done. The Republicans, whether they trust Trump or
not, want to bask in his national support and celebrity among their
constituencies. They want to exploit the
political power and opportunity afforded with having a Republican in the White
House and majorities in the House and Senate.
The only problem is that Trump and his people may not play the game by
their rules.
Once we begin
counting the first 100 days we will begin to witness and understand that a
tyrant can be born out of a democratic government. All the elements of secrecy, paranoia and
closed inner circles will be present.
Donald Trump who has never been one to follow traditions, protocol,
rules or even laws will quickly be completely overwhelmed and when he is
overwhelmed we can expect to see his grab for power. The first sign will be that he will stop
giving press conferences and making himself available to the press. Breeches of protocol will become more and
more numerous. Conflicts with Republican
leaders will become apparent. We will
know that he has totally lost it when we see the first inappropriate tweet
coming directly from President Trump.
Power grabs will become more numerous.
Protests against Trump will increase and Trump will respond with force
to quell any opposition.
His Republican
colleagues will hesitate to confront him directly or challenge his power
grabs. He will become increasingly
frustrated and paranoid when Congress does not implement his proposals. By six months as President he will be at the
breaking point. Reince Priebus will
resign as Chief of Staff but be unwilling to go public as he attempts to
strategize with Republicans regarding how to prevent a total breakdown in the
Executive Branch. Trump’s children will
be his only calming force, but it will be too late. He will be at the point of a complete
breakdown but unwilling to admit to any problem. He will blame everyone else including
Pence. Bannon will attempt to work with
the Trump children to help prop him up just enough to stay in office. By January of 2018 an impeachment process
will have begun in Congress. Trump will
react by becoming fully tyrannical and attempt to stay in power out of
anger. Trump will become like a cornered
wild animal, striking out at anyone that comes near. His wife will leave the Whitehouse and move
back to New York with Barron. The
intensity and stress of the situation after a year will begin to manifest as
physical breakdowns as well as psychological breakdowns. Trump will not emerge psychologically intact.
His grip on reality will be totally destroyed.
It will be the ultimate test of our democracy.
